UFC 162 ‘Silva vs. Weidman’ Preview

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Middleweights

Roger Gracie (6-1, 0-0 UFC) vs. Tim Kennedy (15-4, 0-0 UFC)

The Matchup: A two-time Strikeforce middleweight title challenger, Kennedy is as tenacious as they come, and he has a knack for making life difficult for even the most skilled of opponents. Five-round battles with Luke Rockhold and Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza are the type of trials that prepare a fighter for the greater scrutiny of the Octagon. Kennedy’s service in the Army Special Forces, meanwhile, is the source of his toughness and will on fight night.

Gracie represents mixed martial arts’ First Family. Outside of a first-round knockout defeat to Muhammed Lawal in 2011, he has performed as a Gracie should, earning five of his six victories via submission. Only Keith Jardine, who has never been submitted in 30 professional fights, was able to go the distance against the Black House representative, and he left the cage a bloody mess for his efforts.

Kennedy is a solid grappler in his own right, as he is adept at imposing a grinding style on his foes and wearing them down with takedowns and clinches. However, he is nowhere near as accomplished as Gracie, a 10-time Brazilian jiu-jitsu world champion. With that said, Kennedy more than held his own against another decorated grappler in Souza. While Kennedy ultimately lost a hard-fought decision to “Jacare,” he was able to out-strike his foe while thwarting all of the Brazilian’s takedown attempts.

The 6-foot-4 Gracie has a five-inch reach advantage against Kennedy, but do not expect the 31-year-old to be willing to engage in prolonged exchanges. Gracie’s best punch is his jab, which he will use to set up takedown attempts. Once on the mat, Gracie is extremely patient, as he sets up positional improvements by landing elbows from top position. It can be overwhelming for an opponent to wind up on his back against Gracie, who transitions quickly to mount and back control when given the opportunity.

Kennedy’s defensive grappling will be his best ally, because he is the more accurate striker and should be able to outpoint Gracie with a balanced attack. The Jackson’s Mixed Martial Arts product is a determined wrestler, as well, but the prospect of dealing with Gracie’s guard could deter him from shooting for takedowns. Kennedy can also do damage by landing knees and uppercuts in the clinch, but he must be wary of the trip takedown in close quarters.

The Pick: Kennedy will get the win by simply outworking Gracie. By mixing punches and kicks on the feet and draining Gracie’s cardio in tie-ups, Kennedy will be the fresher fighter in the second half of the bout, allowing him to capture a decision.

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