Preview: UFC 212 ‘Aldo vs. Holloway’

Welterweights

Erick Silva (19-7) vs. Yancy Medeiros (13-4)

THE MATCHUP: Now 32 years old with a crumbling chin, Silva enters Jake Ellenberger territory. Twelve years into his career, the super-athlete has finally begun to develop his technical striking as his talents begin to fade, but the marked improvements have barely been enough to keep him relevant. Luan Chagas, an inexperienced scrapper whose own technique is more than a little rough around the edges, took Silva to the brink in his last fight, surviving some big knockdowns and creating a few of his own before ultimately succumbing to an exhausted Silva’s top-notch jiu-jitsu in the third round. Who knows what kind of success Silva might have been able to find had he sharpened his kickboxing and focused on bringing the fight to the ground earlier in his career. At this point, he is struggling to keep his head above water.

Medeiros has had an up-and-down career of his own in the UFC, but recent performances have inspired more confidence. In his first fight at welterweight, Medeiros was quick, fluid and confident. Despite fighting one of the quicker welterweights on the roster in Sean Spencer, Medeiros looked quick and his combinations were flowing nicely. Medeiros has always liked to use his hands to disguise flashy kicks, but the head kicks with which he hurt Spencer were swift and intelligently set up. Medeiros remains hittable and it seems he will never learn to check or evade low kicks, but offensively, he is a very dangerous fighter.

If Silva can get Medeiros to the ground, he will have a much easier time winning this fight. Medeiros has a solid 82 percent defense rate, but Silva is a capable wrestler when he puts his mind to it. On the ground, he displays silky-smooth transitions, sliding to the back and wrapping up submissions with remarkable grace. His ground striking is also something to be feared. Throughout his career, however, Silva has been more of a counter wrestler than a wrestler in his own right. He specializes in turning takedowns attempted against him into lightning-quick submissions. Medeiros can be sloppy on the ground, but he has never attempted a takedown in the UFC; do not expect him to start now.

THE ODDS: Medeiros (-120), Silva (-110)

THE PICK: Silva can win this fight. He is likely to take advantage of Medeiros’ vulnerability to low kicks, and he will almost certainly land some clean punches. If he is smart, he will use the threat of his punches to set up takedowns. No matter how intelligently Silva approaches this fight, however, the outcome will be determined in large part by youth and the durability and stamina that come with it. Medeiros is not impossible to hurt, but Silva cannot seem to avoid the punishment these days. Medeiros went to hell and back against Francisco Trinaldo, and despite enduring a third round that a kinder referee would have interrupted for the fighter’s own good, he still finished the fight on top, landing punches. That those punches often come in swarming combinations is enough to make Medeiros the pick by second-round TKO.

Last Fights » The Prelims