Given that the heavyweight division can sometimes be a funhouse
mirror, it is completely possible that Rogerio de Lima has somehow
turned a corner at 36 years of age. Coming into the UFC as a light
heavyweight in 2014, the Brazilian’s fights were always fairly cut
and dry. Either “Pezao” would score a knockout within minutes or
things would go south shortly afterwards. Then came a move up to
heavyweight in 2018 and an unexpected pivot. Rogerio de Lima won
his fight against Adam
Wieczorek by fighting completely against type, suddenly busting
out a grinding wrestling game that scored him a clear decision
victory. Rogerio de Lima leaned on that approach once again in a
win over Maurice
Greene about a year ago, and with a stunning 32-second knockout
of Ben
Rothwell in November, the Brazilian is riding his first winning
streak in over seven years, which makes this as good a time as any
to test him against Ivanov. Making his return after roughly two
years, Ivanov is the face of unspectacular heavyweight consistency,
which contrasts with the Bulgarian’s interesting backstory. During
his time with Bellator MMA, Ivanov was stabbed in the heart during
a bar fight in 2012, eventually making an improbable comeback after
being placed in a coma. “Baga” then plugged his way up the ranks
and through a run as World Series of Fighting’s heavyweight
champion before making it to the UFC in 2018. He has since been a
solid gatekeeper to the elite. Ivanov has developed a slow-paced
and counter-heavy striking game to back up his sambo and judo
skills—a combination that is enough to beat his more limited
opponents but has run into trouble against consistent pace or
dynamism. Given that Ivanov has literally proven unkillable,
Rogerio de Lima is unlikely to score another quick knockout, and
any grappling-heavy approach from the Brazilian feels like a losing
battle. So unless Ivanov has lost his durability at some point
during this long layoff, this seems like easy work for the
Bulgarian after Rogerio de Lima’s initial onslaught.
FEELY'S PREDICTION: The pick is Ivanov via
second-round stoppage.
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