Preview: UFC on ESPN 41 ‘Vera vs. Cruz’

Women’s Flyweights

Cynthia Calvillo (9-4-1, 6-4-1 UFC) vs. #9 WSW | Nina Nunes (10-7, 4-4 UFC)

ODDS: Calvillo (-155), Nunes (+135)

Where exactly is Calvillo’s head at? Calvillo exploded onto the UFC scene in 2017. Signed just months into her professional career, she was immediately featured on pay-per-view cards and impressed greatly as a talented and venomous grappler. By the end of the year, Calvillo was matched with Carla Esparza in a hugely important fight, and while that was where the Californian’s undefeated streak stopped, she still figured to have a bright future given her quick rise to that point. Calvillo still racked up wins—and a draw against Marina Rodriguez—in the next few years, but things have spiraled downwards since her June 2020 victory over Jessica Eye, as she has lost three straight and seems to be struggling for answers. One major issue: Calvillo has completely moved away from her strengths as she has moved up the ladder. It makes sense that, as a standout grappler, she would want to develop a striking game, but she has fought more and more behind a range game that, while decent at times, has not done much to help her win fights. Calvillo still finds her big moments on the mat, but she has become more and more content to try and outslick her opponents from afar. That approach just got her shellacked against Jessica Andrade, and when she was getting the worst of the exchanges against Andrea Lee in November, Calvillo tried to pivot to her wrestling, only to get shut down and have the fight stopped in between rounds. Calvillo was briefly linked to a fight back down at strawweight, where she started her UFC career, but instead returns to try and figure some things out against Nunes, who actually makes the move up from 115 pounds.

Nunes was another fighter whose UFC success came out of nowhere, though in her case, it was much more of a slow burn. She did not look particularly like a UFC-level fighter through her first two trips to the Octagon, dropping bouts to Juliana Lima and Justine Kish. However, she turned things around in shockingly effective fashion to put together a four-fight winning streak. Despite some clear physical disadvantages against the likes of Randa Markos and Claudia Gadelha, Nunes just fought smart, stayed consistent and came out the victor against her flakier opponents. After putting in a game effort to not simply get run over by Tatiana Suarez, Nunes missed roughly two years due to pregnancy before returning in April 2021 against Mackenzie Dern. That bout that did not go particularly well for her. In one of the more focused efforts of Dern’s career, she was able to score a takedown and a submission in relatively short order. With this move up to 125 pounds, it will be interesting to see if Nunes is helped by the additional mass. Either way, it seems relatively assured that she will fight a smart and consistent fight. That is enough to get her the nod. If Calvillo can channel a more focused approach through what brought her to the dance, there is a chance she can replicate that Dern fight. With that said, that has also been a pivot Calvillo seemingly should have been making for the last few years. The pick is Nunes via decision.

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Vera vs. Cruz
Onama vs. Landwehr
Jauregui vs. Lucindo
Murzakanov vs. Clark
Calvillo vs. Nunes
Silva vs. Meerschaert
The Prelims