Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Shogun vs. St. Preux’

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BANTAMWEIGHTS

Thomas Almeida (17-0, 0-0 UFC) vs. Tim Gorman (8-3, 0-1 UFC): Almeida is as blue as blue-chip prospects get; I ranked him as the best unsigned prospect in the world back in June, and I stand by that assessment. He has finished each of his 17 victories, most of them by dint of his slick, technical kickboxing. The Brazilian’s striking fundamentals are perfect, and he whirls beautiful punch-kick and body-head combinations at a rapid pace until his opponent inevitably kisses the canvas. Gorman is mostly a wrestler, and not a bad one, with a distinct preference for the single-leg and lunging, awkward-looking strikes. Almeida’s wrestling is a substantial question mark, but he should be able to mostly stuff Gorman and land counter combinations for a third-round stoppage.

FEATHERWEIGHTS

Diego Rivas (5-0, 0-0 UFC) vs. Rodolfo Rubio Perez (12-6, 0-0 UFC): Two contestants from “The Ultimate Fighter: Latin America” meet a week before the show’s finale. Rivas, a member of Fabricio Werdum’s Latin American team, has some skill as a wrestler and a grappler and wings hard punching combinations as he moves forward; however, he is severely handicapped by his lack of size and strength and fights in all phases with more enthusiasm and effort than technical skill. Rubio is likewise a drastically undersized featherweight with an aggressive grappling game, and he covers his takedown attempts with decent strikes as he pushes forward. This is going to be ugly, with a lot of scrambles and bad submission attempts. I lean toward Rivas’ speed and edge in combination striking in that kind of scrap. Rivas by decision is the pick.

MIDDLEWEIGHTS

Caio Magalhaes (8-1, 3-1 UFC) vs. Trevor Smith (12-5, 2-2 UFC): This is a matchup that might not inspire oohs and aahs on paper, but it could turn out to be fun. Smith has split his four UFC bouts, winning the most recent one against Tor Troeng in July, while Magalhaes is riding three straight victories against not-great competition. They are fairly similar fighters with particular skills in the infighting department, while Smith is the better wrestler and Magalhaes the better grappler; neither possesses much in the way of real striking skill. I see this as a fairly entertaining, back-and-forth fight filled with scrambles, takedowns and submission attempts. The pick is Smith by decision, because I think that kind of fight favors his cardio, output and size.

WELTERWEIGHTS

Dhiego Lima (9-2, 0-1 UFC) vs. Jorge Antonio Cezario de Oliveira (7-0, 0-0 UFC): After losing in “The Ultimate Fighter 19” middleweight final against Eddie Gordon, Lima drops back down to his natural weight of 170 pounds to take on UFC debutante Jorge Antonio Cezario de Oliveira, who replaces Pawel Pawlak on extremely late notice. Lima is an excellent athlete with big power in his strikes packed into a rangy frame. A skilled kickboxer with a preference for crisp combinations and vicious low kicks, Lima is also a solid wrestler and slick grappler; in general, he is a young fighter to watch. Oliveira is an exceptionally talented striker, with boatloads of amateur boxing, kickboxing, and muay Thai experience under his belt, but he is a natural lightweight and comes in on very late notice. If Lima wants to strike, he will get smacked around and outworked, but he should be able to get Oliveira to the ground and submit him without too much trouble. Lima by submission in the second round is the pick.

LIGHTWEIGHTS

Leandro Silva (16-2-1, 0-2 UFC) vs. Charlie Brenneman (19-7, 4-6 UFC): I can find something interesting about almost every fight, but there is nothing compelling about a matchup between two journeymen who have no real claim to being on the UFC roster at this point. Brenneman is still somehow mostly a wrestler with limited ancillary skills and terrible defense, while Silva is likewise a decent wrestler with solid submission skills and OK striking. This looks like a slow-paced, grinding fight that takes place mostly in the clinch and on the ground, and I favor Brenneman in that kind of fight. “The Spaniard” by decision is the pick.

WELTERWEIGHTS

Wagner Silva Gomes (3-1, 0-1 UFC) vs. Colby Covington (6-0, 1-0 UFC): Two raw but talented welterweights with a ton of upside meet in the show’s curtain-jerker. Silva, a cast member on “The Ultimate Fighter: Brazil 3,” will be an enormous welterweight after dropping down from 185 pounds. He has a decent striking arsenal consisting mostly of powerful single punches and kicks and is a competent wrestler and grappler. Covington, an American Top Team product, was a NCAA Division I All-American. His game still revolves around his explosive shot and authoritative finishes, especially on his double-leg, with brutal ground striking from the top to follow. If Covington can get Silva down, and he certainly should due to the disparity in wrestling skill, he will finish with ground strikes in the second round for a TKO stoppage.

Follow Sherdog.com preview expert Patrick Wyman on Twitter.