Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Swanson vs. Lobov’

Welterweights

Jake Ellenberger (31-12) vs. Mike Perry (9-1)

THE MATCHUP: After finally getting himself back on the winning track with an inspiring knockout victory over Matt Brown, Ellenberger fell prey to a freak accident in his follow-up fight with Jorge Masvidal. Now, the increasingly “chinny” and shopworn veteran will be pitted against Perry, an echo of Ellenberger’s younger days with less wrestling and more reckless aggression.

Of course, that reckless aggression could cost “Platinum” Perry. Ellenberger is easily among the hardest hitters in welterweight history. It must be pointed out that Ellenberger has suffered from serious confidence issues over the last four years. Whether failing to adapt to the jab of Rory MacDonald, crumbling before the onslaught of Robbie Lawler or struggling with a beaten-down Josh Koscheck, Ellenberger has looked less like “The Juggernaut” and more like a man who does not really want to be fighting anymore. Since returning to the tutelage of Kings MMA’s Rafael Cordeiro, however, he has managed to recapture at least some of his old shine. At the very least, Ellenberger seems less likely to crumble in an instant and more willing to pull the trigger; and an Ellenberger who pulls the trigger is an Ellenberger who can knock out anyone on the planet on any given night.

Still, career momentum rests on Perry’s side. A 25-year-old puncher with a serious chin, he shocked the world when he effortlessly knocked out the significantly more experienced Hyun Gyu Lim in his first UFC fight. A follow-up win over Danny Roberts proved Perry was no fluke. His style is rudimentary at best, built on the simple premise that, so long as he can close the distance, he can knock out a guy with one punch. With unremarkable footwork and inconsistent defense, Perry was picked apart by a disciplined Alan Jouban in his last fight. Where a fighter like Ellenberger might have fallen apart, however, Perry pushed the pace to the best of his ability and soaked up everything Jouban could throw at him.

There is a chance that Ellenberger’s wrestling could show up in this fight. Kings MMA has a solid stock of wrestlers, and Cordeiro fighters like Rafael dos Anjos and Fabricio Werdum have executed clean takedowns when the matchup requires. Ellenberger has not completed a takedown since his ill-fated run-in with Kelvin Gastelum in 2014, but he would be well-advised to make the attempt here. Should he fail to complete a shot, Ellenberger may be able to use his dangerous clinch striking to rattle Perry’s platinum chin. Perry has shown solid takedown defense thus far in the UFC, however, and his athletic talent allows him to scramble back to his feet without much trouble.

THE ODDS: Perry (-180), Ellenberger (+155)

THE PICK: Ellenberger has proved that he is still dangerous. A fighter with his timing and power could be a nightmare matchup for the hittable Perry -- if he were five years younger with about 10 fewer fights under his belt. Ellenberger has been competing professionally since 2005, and he has garnered only two wins in the last four years. Perry will need to add some nuance to his game to break through the ceiling established by Jouban, but that ceiling should not be a problem against the aging Ellenberger. The pick is Perry by first-round TKO.

Last Fights » The Prelims