Bukauskas has seemingly found a foothold on the UFC roster, so now
it’s time to wait and see if “The Baltic Gladiator” can put
together a breakout performance. Bukauskas came to the UFC in 2020
with a lot of hype, owing to a highly successful regional career,
but looked like the type of prospect that might struggle at the UFC
level. His wins against better regional competition were rarely
clean, with Bukauskas usually leveraging his size and durability to
find a few big moments. Indeed, things quickly went south after a
successful UFC debut. Bukauskas faced a solid level of competition
but strung together three straight losses and suffered a major knee
injury in the last of those against Khalil
Rountree. After his recovery, Bukauskas won a few fights and
quickly found his way back to the UFC early in 2023, and he has
seemingly been helped by the lower expectations. Matched with the
bottom half of the UFC’s light heavyweight roster, his ability to
pump out striking volume has led to some consistent if
unspectacular wins. A knockout loss to athletic prospect Vitor
Petrino in November showed that Bukauskas might still hit a
ceiling, but there’s enough there to suggest that, at age 30,
Bukauskas might suddenly turn a corner through sheer experience. To
that end, Prachnio is a solid veteran test. Prachnio has done well
to bounce back from a particularly terrible start in the UFC. A
dedicated striker, Prachnio’s first three UFC fights saw him cycle
through a ton of different ideas, only to get knocked out each
time. However, the Pole did eventually settle into a patient
approach centered around pecking at his opponents from long
distance. Opponents that stick to aggression and pressure can still
usually blow through Prachnio’s defenses, but enough of the UFC’s
light heavyweight roster is slow-footed enough that Prachnio can
chip away to some wins. Bukauskas seems to be on the winning side
of that equation, as while he might not be the quickest, he’s both
rangy and willing to keep pouring out offense, so he should have
some big moments even if the fight never moves above a simmer. The
pick is Bukauskas via decision.
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