Prime Picks: Bellator 301 ‘Amosov vs. Jackson’

Bellator MMA hangs its hopes on arguably the two best divisions in the sport—welterweight and bantamweight—with belts on the line in both weight categories on Friday at Wintrust Arena. The Chicago-based fans will get plenty of combat to consume, as the main card will see three five-round affairs, a grudge match and a huge test for a former champion. A few betting lines jump off the page at Bellator 301, so join this shortened edition of Prime Picks as we check into the main attraction and point to as close of “sure thing” as we have reviewed in quite some time.

Yaroslav Amosov-Jason Jackson Lasts Over 4.5 Rounds (-175)

Coming into Bellator, Amosov had only heard the final bell twice as a professional in 19 outings. That finish rate dropped dramatically as the level of competition raised to one of a reasonable level, compared to the likes of 0-3 Ravil Rizaev, 0-2 Islam Berzegov or 0-0 Khasanbek Abdulaev—opponents Amosov faced when he was 11-0, 13-0 and 15-0. This is not an attack on Amosov’s resume in his early career, when opponents combined for a win-loss record of about 37-24 in his first 15 fights. It is a symptom of location and careful matchmaking, and it is not too uncommon for prospects in the region with some shine. Despite his MMA upbringing, “Dynamo” has been a dynamo under the Bellator banner, rarely looking in jeopardy as he steamrolled through opposition and made a claim as one of the best welterweights in the world. While he has appeared dominant, beyond a close one against excellent wrestler Logan Storley, finishes have been at a premium. The same can be said for his latest challenger.

Jackson, the man known as “The Ass-Kicking Machine,” has been anything but, rattling off six straight decisions where he was firmly in the driver’s seat but rarely in the position to finish a fight. His size and defensive prowess have allowed him to nullify the best tools of his opponents, whether that meant shutting down the grappling threat of Benson Henderson, tricking the judges while sacrificing his eyes to slip by Neiman Gracie’s submission attack or pushing past Paul Daley’s fight-changing power. Jackson’s physicality has given him the edge in fights even against more skilled fighters in a specific area, and his gas tank is the kind that can hold up across five rounds when he is the one pushing the pace. That might not be the case against Amosov, but at least Jackson does not fold under pressure.

Amosov may blow the doors off with a 50-44 type of display, where his chain wrestling and top control shut Jackson out. It could also turn into a 48-47 toss-up where anyone could take it if Jackson stifles the attempts and forces Amosov to trade with him. Amosov could also decide to showcase his growing striking prowess, as the threat of his takedown allows him to let his hands go, a la Khabib Nurmagomedov against Al Iaquinta. All of those outcomes have something in common: time elapsed. But for a late knockout over a decade ago and a fluke ankle injury in 2017, Jackson’s durability has remained constant as a pro. His undefeated opponent can also say the same. However, it is possible that beyond Roberto Soldic, Jackson hits harder on a punch-per-punch scale than any of Amosov’s previous foes. The expectation is not that Jackson will get his first knockout in over five years, coming against a fighter who has never been finished or even tasted defeat. Instead, it is that the fight goes extremely late or hears the final bell. Based on the line of the bout going the distance at -170, giving up a tiny fraction of value is prudent when it allows a late cushion of 2:30 at the tail end of the match in the unlikely outcome that one man cannot make it there.

Keri Melendez (-230)

This abbreviated sheet of picks will not see anyone in plus money but instead features something even rarer than a mighty underdog—like, for example, Sergio Pettis upsetting Patrick Mix. This selection is what we would recommend more as a “max bet,” or something akin to full confidence in one fighter even greater than the “Straight Up Cash” segments we run ahead of Ultimate Fighting Championship pay-per-views. In this case, there may be questions that a savvy bettor could raise as to Melendez’s chances of winning: her age, her declining ability to make weight and, perhaps more importantly, her inactivity. While those concerns generally would play a factor, the woman she faces makes all that practically moot.

This fight appears to be a setup, the kind of deliberate preliminary matchmaking Bellator is famous for running. It is not simply that Melendez is undefeated, with multiple first-round stoppages to her credit. Instead, Sabriye Sengul has offered exceptionally little to show her skills at an elite or even practicable level. The former kickboxer may technically have that in her back pocket, but her defense is not particularly stalwart, and the actual record of her accomplishments is sparse at best. With a .500 record, it is no accident that her three career victories have come against women making their professional debuts, and, unsurprisingly, two of three have not fought again; the third saw her win-loss record tip beneath .500 recently.

Sengul may be famously known as the woman who lashed out at Denise Kielholtz after “Miss Dynamite” quickly submitted her in about 30 seconds in 2019, claiming that she expected a kickboxing match under MMA rules. There are currently no listed prop bets on any major book, but even at -230, that line is a bargain. Perhaps out of caution that Melendez is 39 and has not competed as a pro since 2020, her favored status remains relatively close. Had this occurred even a year ago, this bout may have seen the wife of “El Nino” Gilbert Melendez climb to -500 favorite or higher. If a prop bet shows itself for her winning by submission or even a narrower play of her winning by first-round submission, that is worth a flier at minimum.