Prime Picks: UFC 298 ‘Volkanovski vs. Topuria’

The Ultimate Fighting Championship cruises into the Honda Center in Anaheim, California, on the heels of news that the UFC and sister company WWE will be posting up in this building frequently the next few years. The beginning of this arrangement is a strong one from the ESPN prelims on up, with plenty of ranked matchups or pairings that promise violence and intensity. Betting lines are all over the map, with favorites ranging from -120 to -1200 or more, but there are still avenues that bettors can pick up a chunk of change. Join the UFC 298 edition of Prime Picks as we stan for an old man, express shock at an ultra-lopsided line and pontificate whether “The Future” is still the future of one division.

Straight Up Cash

Alexander Volkanovski (-130)

The sample size is tiny regarding data collection, but UFC champions at 35 or above tend not to fare well—in the lighter-weight divisions—in their next championship appearance. Volkanovski has hit the 35-year Mendoza line, and according to fight fans, he has entered the Danger Zone. The Aussie has laughed off all of these concerns and reminds those watching that he has still not tasted defeat at 145 pounds. His losses to Islam Makhachev were for the lightweight strap, while Corey Nelson punted him all those years ago as a welterweight. Father Time is undefeated, but if Volkanovski is to be believed, Father Time may not be his opponent just yet.

Challenger Ilia Topuria is a vicious fighter, attacking every which way he can. He has backed up his 86% finish rate with moments like the brutal drubbings of Damon Jackson and Ryan Hall and his submission of grappling wunderkind Bryce Mitchell. Eight years the champ’s junior, the German-born Georgian who trains mainly on the rainy plain of Spain claims he will blow through Volkanovski without batting an eye. If he approaches the champion the same way he battled Josh Emmett, he will have another thing coming. Volkanovski’s accuracy and shot selection are second to none as the featherweight king, and his ability to throw in takedowns when he feels like it will stifle even the best of strikers.

Topuria swings hard, approaching the fight game by throwing everything at full power while having the cardio reserves to keep up such a pace even after 20 minutes of combat. This aggression might play to a detriment when a sharp counter striker like Volkanovski utilizes his slight reach advantage and stellar timing to get the better of exchanges. “El Matador” cannot stay at a wide distance playing kickboxing, or his lead leg will be chewed up by the meat grinder that is Volkanovski’s low-kick offense. The champion has survived better pure submission grapplers, pure strikers and pure action fighters than Topuria, so it almost seems disrespectful that the betting line has been nearly a pick-‘em on fight week.

Straight Up Pass

Rinya Nakamura (-1400)

U23 World Wrestling Champion Nakamura is an excellent bantamweight prospect with a style that can make waves even in the talent-stacked 135-pound division. The physical tools back up his skillset, as he celebrates above-average power and has plenty of time to develop even though he turns 29 in March. Nakamura should be able to defeat late replacement Carlos Vera with style points, whether through his wrestling or by deciding to let his hands go. Why pass? No fighter 2-0 in the promotion should be a -1400 favorite against any competitor, short notice or otherwise. At best, Nakamura should be an additive as a multiplier on a parlay.

No reasonable bettor should throw on his moneyline or try to guess whether the Japanese youngster hits a submission (+195) or lands a knockout blow (+125). When drilling down on the lines, it is much fairer to throw down on Nakamura performing a finish of some type at -225. Vera, at 36, comes into the UFC after four straight wins with Fury FC in Texas, and he displayed a quick guillotine choke in his last two outings—both of which took place in 2022. Vera will need to be careful not to give up an easy takedown by throwing a naked kick, although he does have the guillotine choke as a potential threat when Nakamura shoots. A flier of Vera winning by submission is +2000, but bettors should approach this at their peril.

Dog Will Hunt

Geoff Neal (+188)

It may come several months later than advertised, as Neal had been scheduled to fight Ian Garry in August 2023, but this key welterweight contest is now coming together. While Neal has been out since his tough loss to Shavkat Rakhmonov, a bout he showed success against the storming unbeaten Kazakh, Garry went from Neal to Neil with opponent names and squashed Neil Magny that night. On the 170-pound rankings, Neal is above Magny despite his suffocating loss to the veteran, while Garry ran roughshod over Magny. MMA math aside, this is an extremely dangerous matchup for the undefeated Irishman, as Neal can crack.

When looking back at Neal vs. Rakhmonov, most remember the overwhelming nature of “Nomad” wearing out the Fortis MMA fighter and getting the standing choke at the end. What might be forgotten is that Neal represented his “Handz of Steel” nickname brilliantly, hurting Rakhmonov in a way he had never been damaged. Rakhmonov survived the worst of it and came around, but “The Future” cannot look past Neal in this encounter. The Irishman continues to switch camps as he gets older, which could be a benefit or a burden, as he has hopped from Team KF to Kill Cliff FC to Chute Boxe Diego Lima while burning bridges along the way. The intangibles might play a factor for the favorite, who has been a staple of MMA news gossip due to his trash talk and relationship with his wife. While “The Future” could still be the future, he should not be a -230 favorite against the dangerous Neal, who can rearrange his teeth in a hurry.

An Accumulation Contemplation:

Volkanovski vs. Topuria Lasts Over 1.5 Rounds (-350)
Mingyang Zhang vs. Brendson Ribeiro Lasts Under 1.5 Rounds (-300)
Andrea Lee vs. Miranda Maverick Starts Round 3 (-400)
Total Odds: +114

We look to three time-based options rather than outright plays for winners and losers to capture this latest parlay and dip it into plus money. These all observe historical performances and situational matchups, like two light heavyweights who will club one another over the head like cavemen. The anchor of this parlay hearkens back to the main event, predicting that neither man will procure a win any earlier than a round and a half in. Volkanovski is a technician but not a quick-strike finisher, and although Topuria is, the champ is defensively sound enough that he will not likely get caught. The likelihood that Topuria lands a high kick a la Makhachev is fairly low, and Volkanovski is tough as nails.

In their combined 31 victories, Zhang and Ribeiro post exactly 31 stoppages. The Chinese competitor has performed all 16 in the first round, while Ribeiro counters with 11 in Round 1 and 12 under 7:30. Their losses tend to be equally speedy: Zhang has an early defeat to Askar Mozharov in the opening minute, among others, while Ribeiro has been downed five times before the midpoint of the second round. With Zhang needing to shake off some rust, having not fought since the middle of 2022, Ribeiro may catch him cleanly before getting his sea legs. On the other hand, Zhang could rush out and blast Ribeiro with a combination of punches and knees. One way or another, this light heavyweight scrap should not last very long.

Kicking off this three-piece with Sam’s Choice Cola is a flyweight pairing that, surprisingly, is not a rematch between Lee and Maverick. At its core, this matchup places a kickboxer against a grappler, but both women have shored up their deficiencies not to be a liability on the feet or mat. For instance, Lee is willing to line up multiple takedowns, and Maverick can throw hands. Both women hold a similar finish rate below 70%, with numerous late stoppages on their ledgers. This parlay is good to go as long as this fight checks into the third round.