Prime Picks: UFC 309 ‘Jones vs. Miocic’

The Ultimate Fighting Championship soars into New York with a top-heavy showing that puts several beloved locals on full display. The betting lines range from a pick-’em involving a former beltholder to one of the widest disparities one can encounter inside the Octagon, and there is a way to profit from both matches equally. Join the UFC 309 edition of Prime Picks as we dive into the biggest bouts on the bill, dodging and juking sketchy lines to scratch up some simoleons.

UFC 309: Jones vs Miocic. Saturday at 10 ET on ESPN+. Order Now!

STRAIGHT-UP CASH

Charles Oliveira-Michael Chandler Lasts Under 2.5 Rounds (-260)

Normally, we stray away from betting lines much higher than -200, with -250 or greater considered extreme or something closer to a lock than most other options. The betting line for the main event is vast, and the co-headliner is not much better. The moneyline on Oliveira is the same as this under for the time being. We considered the under of 1.5 rounds, but “Do Bronx” passed that against Dustin Poirier and Islam Makhachev recently, to say nothing about his decision against Arman Tsarukyan. A pick for the fight not starting Round 3 might be ideal at -185, but not every sportsbook offers that kind of play. Therefore, when picking 1.5 or 2.5 rounds, we unusually err on the side of caution.

There is zero bad blood between these two marauding lightweights, but plenty of intensity still remains. Oliveira has expressed his overwhelming desire to recapture his old throne, while Chandler celebrates victories in four of his six career rematches. Both men bring high finish rates that have not dried up when reaching the top echelon of the sport; Oliveira has needed the judges only once in a win dating back almost a decade. To make matters better for bettors, they have historically not needed more than 12:30 to get a foe out of there or had their wig split. The addition of an extra round as a buffer may shift this pick out of a direct moneyline for some, while repositioning it towards parlay territory.

If their first encounter is any indication, these two all-action 155ers will throw caution to the wind and engage early and constantly until one man falls. In the span of five minutes and 19 seconds, the two combined to land 54 significant strikes, two knockdowns, a takedown, a reversal and a submission attempt. Oliveira seemingly could not miss, but Chandler’s aggression was not to be trifled with as he had “Do Bronx” on the ropes in the first round. Oliveira’s mighty comeback blew minds when he finished the durable wrestler, not with a choke but with his fists. Both men know the other can bleed, and if it bleeds, we can kill it.

STRAIGHT-UP PASS

Damon Jackson (-172)

Betting against Jim Miller—that is, Jim “Expletive Deleted” Miller—is a fool’s errand in his current career trajectory. The 41-year-old has won five of his last seven dating back three years, with the only defeats coming in decisions to fringe contenders Bobby Green and Alexander Hernandez. In those losses, Miller did look his age, but he turned back the clock against each of the five men he finished. While the level of competition he can surpass has declined, this situational matchup against a defensively porous Jackson is one where “A-10” or “The Warthog” can let loose.

On paper, this pairing looks like Miller versus a younger version of himself, an opportunistic but hittable grappler with just enough pop on his shots to get his foe’s attention. As Miller has aged, he has somehow defied most metrics, instead finding his power and notching almost as many knockouts in those five aforementioned wins than in the remainder of his lengthy tenure. The wheels do not completely fall off after Round 2, but someone who can keep volume high like Green will spell his undoing. Jackson is not going to do that, with prospects of either an interesting grappling battle with plenty of scrambles and threats or a sloppy kickboxing contest when those styles cancel out both real possibilities. In the former, Miller is as dangerous as ever at snatching up a choke or finishing grip, while the latter should present the grizzled vet with an outright edge. Given how these two have performed of late, the line should be closer. Miller at plus money might be a steal here, with a win by stoppage at +275 being the cherry on top for the fan-favorite from New Jersey.

’DOG WILL HUNT

Paul Craig (+775)

As the line currently stands, Bo Nickal serves as a -1500 favorite in his main card encounter with the dangerous Craig. Even with Craig sporting victories over names far more established than his relative neophyte opponent, bettors are overwhelmingly expecting the Pennsylvania-based wrestler to blaze through this next test. There is plenty of sense in the Nickal pick, with the Don Hodge Trophy winner in 2019 being eight years younger and having far fewer miles on his tires. Nickal will be faster, substantially more capable of getting the fight to the mat and has taken considerably less damage than his opponent. Still, Craig can snatch victory from the jaws of defeat and has done so on numerous occasions, making him scoring the upset—and his spoiling the party by procuring a finish at +850 even more tantalizing—an imaginable scenario.

The Scot has always been a lumbering grappler who swings for the fences partly because there is more power behind those looping strikes and also because it closes the distance well. Even with Craig landing just 20% of his takedown attempts in the Octagon, it is not about his offense as much as it is his offensive defense that tends to help him. Craig is ready and willing to pull guard to set up a submission off his back, and it was no accident that he snared the likes of Jamahal Hill, Nikita Krylov and Magomed Ankalaev in his sneaky net. A young, overconfident Nickal who has never experienced true adversity in a mixed martial arts contest could find that he blows through Craig’s takedown defense like tissue paper only to find that the veteran was waiting for that specific shot with a well-laid trap. Many questions still loom about Nickal, who has only once gone to Round 2 as a pro. Can his chin handle a clean strike from a hard-swinger like Craig? Is he capable of staying out of chained submission attempts while advancing position? What happens when he starts to fade and Craig is still in there with him? All these queries make a flier on “Bearjew” hardly objectionable.

AN ACCUMULATION CONTEMPLATION:

Jon Jones (-675)

Mauricio Ruffy Wins Inside Distance (-200)

Chris Weidman-Eryk Anders Lasts Over 1.5 Rounds (-400)

Total Odds: +115

It may have taken three full sections to mention the name of the current heavyweight champ, but Jones unquestionably deserves some shine in this betting piece. With massive but understandable odds in his favor, betting on “Bones” is likely better suited for a parlay—unless someone bold believes Jones will achieve what Alistair Overeem could not and tap Stipe Miocic. Generally, a layoff of over 18 months would be a treacherous one, which is the case for Jones. However, his rust has not reached the level of Miocic, who has been out of action since Francis Ngannou knocked his block off three and a half years ago. Power is the last thing to go, and the 42-year-old Miocic could very well play spoiler, but getting his hands on Jones is another proposition entirely. Jones as the anchor to this parlay may mean prospective bettors have to wait until the bitter end for this card to cash, but it sets up well.

Once a lightweight clash, Ruffy now faces James Llontop at 165 pounds for unknown reasons. There is a question on whether the onus was on the favored Brazilian to make 156 pounds, or if it was Llontop who could not make it. If it turns out to be the former, it still is not a scary notion to pitch Ruffy winning by stoppage. Digging deeper, Ruffy chalking up his 11th knockout in 11 wins is the overall call, but “Goku” has never been stopped with strikes, so we give ourselves a smidge of wiggle room to allow for a club-and-sub. All signs are pointing to this latest member of the Fighting Nerds team to register a devastating finish, and the 25-year-old from Peru will be a willing and able dance partner until his chin gets checked.

It has been over five years since Anders has put someone away prior to the 6:30 mark of a match, and even a dilapidated Weidman will not likely be the one to break that streak. The former champ’s jaw has held up, although inactivity has not been the strong suit of “The All-American” thanks to a litany of injuries, including his brutal broken leg against Uriah Hall. At the tender age of 40, Weidman’s back is firmly against the wall in what could be his last time out, and as long as he fights to his best advantages, he can keep his head attached to his body and try to outlast the former football player. A solid takedown defense rate around 80% for Anders means that he can keep his back against the wall staving off sprawls, and all the while, time keeps on ticking into the future. Barring Anders flying like an eagle and demolishing a shopworn Weidman, it has the makings of a match that goes long. If it does, the accumulator starts off right, checking off what might be the riskiest box of the three options.