Prime Picks: UFC Fight Night 246 ‘Moreno vs. Albazi’

The Ultimate Fighting Championship on Saturday takes its first trip to Edmonton, Alberta, since 2019 with a crammed card light on divisional relevance beyond the marquee matchups. Unlike several recent events, lines are relatively close, with no favorite above -320 thus far. Join the far more compelling UFC Edmonton edition of Prime Picks as we throw down for a former champion, expect heavyweights to heavyweight and give flowers to an explosive Canadian.

Brandon Moreno (-175)

The former two-time flyweight king is a close decision away from beating anyone in his weight category. Since returning to the promotion in 2019, every fighter to top him has done so on mixed scorecards, as some scoring media members believed he topped Deiveson Figueiredo, Alexandre Pantoja and Brandon Royval in his decision losses. When winning, he has largely blazed through opposition, leaving no doubt in the tetralogy against Figueiredo or when he put Kai Kara-France down to cement himself as a divisional elite. While Moreno has proved he belongs in the Top 3, the same has not yet been said about Amir Albazi.

When Albazi took on Kara-France, the lion’s share of the scoring audience believed the Kiwi had done enough to get the job done, with nearly half of the voters even suggesting that “KKF” had won four of five rounds. The only voices that mattered were the three official scorers at the UFC Apex Las Vegas, and Albazi will get a chance to demonstrate his greatness in a five-rounder against an ex-champ.

Like Moreno, Albazi is a member of the vaunted “new breed” discussed for years by various prognosticators and commentators. Instead of coming into the sport with a background in a traditional martial art or combat discipline like wrestling, both fighters joined MMA gyms and learned all of the skills at once. This translates to neither having nine-out-of-10 levels in any particular facet of their game and instead wielding a well-rounded and shored-up approach where they have few glaring weaknesses. Where they have a major difference is that the favored Moreno celebrates ample five-round experience, while Albazi had never competed beyond Round 3 before June 2023—which was his last appearance. All of these factors roll together to make “The Assassin Baby” one to select, despite his two-fight skid.

Derrick Lewis Wins by KO/TKO (+215)

For as long as Lewis remains on the roster, a bet on his getting a knockout is one that will be suggested by Prime Picks. There may be a few names where that may be inadvisable at the top of the weight class, but as he remains in general population at heavyweight, his swangin’ and bangin’ can get the job done against any man that stands before him. The fun times might draw to a close soon, but the 39-year-old has won two of his last three via first-round knockout, and Jhonata Diniz is just the kind of adversary who will take everything Lewis offers and try to give it back. While the safest bet of all might be that the fight ends by knockout either way—this line is -500, a valuable option in a parlay—the pick for “The Black Beast” is still on the table.

Diniz found he could run through Eduardo Neves on Dana White’s Contender Series, but it took him two rounds to dispatch Austen Lane and a full three to surpass Karl Williams. The finishing power might be drying up for the unbeaten fighter as the level of competition increases, but the same cannot be said for the UFC’s all-time knockout leader in Lewis. “The Black Beast” tends not to compete to win rounds, and he throws full power for as long as he is in the fight. Diniz can outslug him if he keeps a high volume while watching closely on the Lewis counter, backing the Texan up against the fence and opening up with combinations. Make one mistake, and Nascimento will require smelling salts.

Marc-Andre Barriault (-200)

The loser of this middleweight matchup will almost certainly receive his walking papers, with the UFC cutting or allowing over two dozen competitors to float into the abyss this month alone. With Barriault sporting a 5-7 record inside the Octagon, there should objectively not be a great deal of confidence in him, especially as an odds-on favorite. However, when he collides with Pennsylvanian grappler Dustin Stoltzfus, who has earned just two wins after seven walks to the UFC cage, it makes a bit more sense. Stoltzfus has struggled with foes overwhelming him with sheer force, be it grappling might or firepower on the feet, and Barriault in a home-country matchup has the latter in his favor.

With the moniker of “Power Bar,” which firmly represents the way he fights—as if he is trying to manage a meter of energy while simultaneously going all-out—it is no wonder that Barriault lives by the sword and dies by it, as well. The last few years, however, the Canadian has displayed that he can handle middling middleweights while getting outgunned by those in the Top 25. Walking Julian Marquez down and jackhammering him with punches, elbows, knees and a steel chair he found laying around might be Barriault’s career high mark, but it is the kind of thing he can do to Stoltzfus. By getting in the face of the younger man, putting hands on him and shutting down any hopes of grappling, Barriault should make solid work of his opponent and tick one win closer to .500.

Alexander Romanov-Rodrigo Nascimento Ends Inside Distance (-170)

The cage integrity will be fully tested in the heavyweight prelim between Romanov and Nascimento, as both big men will likely weigh in right around 265 pounds, not counting anything they cut to get there. Finishes come with their size, as they have combined for five decisions in their 28 pro wins. Neither man likes to ride things out in defeat, either, and things can get grueling should it reach the later rounds for them. This also presents openings to drum out a fight late, when one or both is fatigued and barely able to stay on their feet. Before time expires, a referee will have to get involved.

Romanov fights to his own detriment at times, and he has exposed himself by displaying a gas tank that is depleted after minutes of hard fighting. While his aggression and early intensity can get lesser foes out of there in a hurry, more stalwart adversaries can handle him and make him look silly. Nascimento failed the test to move to the next level by getting his chin checked by Lewis, and he will take on someone of suitable difficulty this time. The Brazilian’s takedown defense is decent but hardly spectacular, and he will have to figure out how to get through the first round when dealing with at least one suplex. It might end up with Romanov prevailing early or Nascimento surviving the onslaught and punishing a flagging Moldovan, but the finish is all that matters with this bet.