The Bottom Line: Justifiable Doubt

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For most of his career, Jon Jones has been anything but a fighter with the odds stacked against him. Blessed with world-class athletic gifts and a high fight IQ, he was running through opponents in his early 20s. By the time he fought Mauricio “Shogun” Rua for the Ultimate Fighting Championship light heavyweight crown, he was the 2-to-1 betting favorite against an opponent who had risen to the top of Pride Fighting Championships and then the UFC. Since then, Jones’ toughest opponent has been himself, as his mistakes outside the Octagon have brought him headaches in his personal life and made it harder for him in the cage, as well. His opponents were hardly as fearsome, as he built up a strong claim to being MMA’s GOAT.

As Jones prepares to return to competition in the UFC 285 main event on Saturday in Las Vegas, he’s in an unfamiliar position. This time, there are many reasons to doubt how he is going to do. That’s not to say he’s the underdog, but he’s the narrowest favorite he has been since he was an underdog against the late Stephan Bonnar 11 days after the George W. Bush presidency ended. He might well be the underdog had not Francis Ngannou beaten Ciryl Gane two fights ago with a gameplan Jones ought to be even better equipped to implement. Even given that advantage, Jones faces many challenges.

Age comes for all of us, and it comes for athletes early. Jones, now 35, finds himself in the opposite role from when he was the young star rolling through older legends like “Shogun,” Quinton Jackson, Lyoto Machida and Vitor Belfort. Larger fighters can often hold on later than smaller fighters, but Jones’ speed and athleticism were always key to his success more so than raw power.

Even more of a concern may be the time off, as Jones has not fought since before the coronavirus pandemic shut down regular life over three years ago. That’s a long time, and skills deteriorate when they are not used. Gane has fought six times, a serious advantage for the younger man. That lack of fight time can be mitigated by assiduous day-to-day training, but Jones has struggled with idle time; and multiple arrests during that period are a troubling sign for his level of focus.

The concerns for Jones go deeper still, as his domestic violence arrest led to his being banned from the Jackson-Wink MMA gym, the academy that guided him to his greatest triumphs. That camp helped bring stability when Jones was dealing with chaos. Losing it is a liability, even if he still works with Greg Jackson and has not entirely lost connection with the formula that brought him so much success.

There’s also the matter of Jones putting on 30 pounds of weight to prepare for a transition to the heavyweight division. The added muscle will surely bring some benefits with it, but Jones will need to learn to fight in a different way and he’ll have to do it against powerful men looking to separate him from his senses. That’s a dangerous game even when all other factors are equal, and as discussed with Jones, he’s trying to navigate whole bunch of other changes at the same time.

It’s not as if Jones looked that great the last two times we saw him fight, either. His bouts with Dominick Reyes and Thiago Santos were arguably the two least impressive of his entire light heavyweight title run. People remember his greatest victories much more vividly, but the Jones we see against Gane is more likely to resemble the one we saw more recently against Reyes and Santos than the one from eight to 10 years ago. With so many legends, we tend to underplay the cracks in the armor until the aura of invincibility is shattered.

While all of these factors suggest it may be a bumpy ride for Jones at heavyweight, there is a big upside for him and his legacy if he’s able to thrive in his new weight class the way he did for so many years at his old one. Doing what you’re expected to do gets old after a while, even if it’s not an easy task. Taking on new challenges and conquering them reminds the public of your greatness.

The many reasons to doubt Jones’ ability to dominate a higher weight class are the reasons it would be all the more impressive if he is able to do so. As time passes, the resumes of every elite fighter become easier to pick apart. We see all their best opponents lose, and those wins seem less impressive than when they were dispatched at their best. So it has happened with Jones, who is not spoken of with the same reverence as a fighter that he once was when he was reminding us on the regular. If he is able to remind us again, it will mean more than any win he has had since Daniel Cormier, because it came once again with doubt. Of course, that Jones may be gone and gone for good.