The Bottom Line: Khamzat Chimaev and the UFC 273 Crucible

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While nobody is going to confuse UFC 273 with one of the Ultimate Fighting Championship’s most hotly anticipated shows, there is plenty of interest scheduled both on the prelims and the pay-per-view portion of the card on Saturday in Jacksonville, Florida. The Aljamain Sterling-Petr Yan rematch has been brewing for over a year now, and Sterling will have the opportunity to win over his doubters and silence those who criticized him following his disqualification win last spring. For Yan, it’s the chance to become undisputed champion and stake his claim as one of the sport’s best pound-for-pound fighters.

For over a decade now, Chan Sung Jung has been delivering some of the most exciting fights in the sport. It seems a good bet that he will bring the best out of Alexander Volkanovski and we will get a memorable featherweight title fight in the main event. There are also important rebound fights for stars like Mackenzie Dern, Jairzinho Rozenstruik and Aspen Ladd. However, the fight that stands out most of all is Khamzat Chimaev’s showdown with Gilbert Burns.

Buzz has surrounded the 27-year-old Chimaev for years. There was discussion about what a monster he was in the gym, and then he started steamrolling opponents in the Octagon. A bad bout of COVID-19 kept him out of action for a year, but he came back looking as strong as ever. He only has four fights in the UFC, but he is already hyped as a potential championship-level fighter. What comes next for Chimaev is one of the most exciting moments in a rising prospect’s career: the big step up in competition.

There are fair criticisms to be levied against the way the UFC treats its fighters, but one big positive of the power the UFC wields over their careers is that the organization gets the best to fight the best. You don’t reach the top without proving yourself against elite competition, and as a result, fighters on the way up face major tests where victory is uncertain. Win those fights and you can settle into the championship mix. Lose and you may quickly find yourself back languishing on the prelims.

Li Jingliang and Gerald Meerschaert are quality fighters, and the way Chimaev handled them was impressive. However, Burns is a test of an entirely different nature. This is a world-class submission grappler who has added quality striking and hasn’t lost to anyone not named Kamaru Usman in nearly four years. This is the fight that can definitively prove Chimaev belongs with the elite of his division.

It often feels so certain that the rising star will keep winning—until he loses. There’s an aura of invincibility that can form around a fighter who hasn’t been truly tested that doesn’t reflect the reality of their deficiencies. Once those deficiencies are exposed, a fuller and more accurate picture developed. Of course, sometimes the young fighters with the greatest hype prove to have few liabilities to be exploited. That’s why the first big test can be so instructive.



We tend to remember the fighters who made it to the top the best. Jon Jones was the super prospect running through the competition when he was matched with another top prospect: the undefeated Ryan Bader. It was the stiffest competition Jones had faced to date. Jones rolled through Bader, and he’d spend the following years rolling through champion after champion. The Bader win affirmed what Jones would become.

Fighters the caliber of Jones are the distinct minority in the sport. Much more common are the fighters who rise up through steadily increasing levels of competition until they eventually hit the level where opponents are every bit as good as them. The hype dies down, and reality sets in. It usually comes as a surprise because fans want to believe in the Next Big Thing.

Take Brandon Vera, once one of the most hyped young stars in the sport. Vera talked about wanting to win titles in two weight classes and rolled to a 4-0 UFC record with four stoppages, just like Chimaev. Then he was given his big step up in competition: former heavyweight champion Tim Sylvia. Vera had fought Frank Mir already, but it was a severely diminished Mir still recovering from a terrible motorcycle accident who had looked slow and unimpressive against Marcio Cruz and Dan Christison. Sylvia by contrast was 23-3 and coming off losing his heavyweight title in his third attempted defense. Vera was the betting favorite against the former champ, but Sylvia picked up the unanimous decision. Vera would go 7-8 after that point.

Brandon Thatch is another fighter who quickly generated hype with a pair of impressive first-round TKOs to start his UFC career. The UFC rewarded him with a fight with former champion Benson Henderson, who appeared likely to leave the organization. The hope was clearly to build up Thatch, and he too was the favorite against the former champion. Instead, Henderson submitted him. Thatch has not recorded an MMA win since.

Chimav, like Jones but also like Vera and Thatch, is the favorite against Burns despite Burns possessing a much more impressive resume. Observers believe in Chimaev. It’s now time for him to prove that belief is justified. He has an opponent who has already proven himself at the highest level, overcoming determined foes of the highest caliber. Either Chimaev will join the club or we’ll see some weaknesses that were to this point invisible.

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