UFC 293 Beforemath: How Sean Strickland Can Keep Up with Israel Adesanya

This weekend hosts one of those matchups that can make you shrug your shoulders and have an overall apathetic demeanor. The wildest thing about it all: it’s an Israel Adesanya fight. Normally, when “The Last Stylebender” steps foot in the cage it’s must-watch television, but at UFC 293, Adesanya is taking on fifth-ranked Sean Strickland. Strickland is seen as a massive underdog and most people do not see a path to victory for him. In today’s edition of Beforemath, we are trying to find Strickland’s path to victory and championship glory. We will also be looking at the hazards that lie ahead for him as he steps foot in the Octagon with the ever-tricky Adesanya.

Adesanya: Masterful Performance after Masterful Performance

Adesanya has been a fan favorite since gracing the Octagon for the first time in 2018. While his reign has been nearly perfect, fans turned against him after delivering lackluster performances against Yoel Romero, Marvin Vettori and Jared Cannonier. It was celebrated when his arch-nemesis, Alex Pereira, made his way to the title and knocked Adesanya out in Round 5. That adversity was exactly what the City Kickboxing champion needed as he rallied back and beat Pereira in the rematch. Now with Pereira within striking distance—pun intended—of a title shot at 205 pounds, that rivalry is not yet done. That win produced a promo that saw a race-baiting Adesanya setting up a fight with Dricus Du Plessis. Now with the fans at his back, Adesanya is looking for a highlight reel knockout of Strickland and set up the Du Plessis fight that couldn’t come to fruition just yet. So, what traps does the 34-year-old champion have for Strickland? In short: a lot.

Let’s start by addressing Strickland’s fatal flaw: he reaches for everything. The fight that saw Pereira earn a title shot against Adesanya perfectly illustrated this. I am usually hesitant to post the Pereira knockout of Strickland because of what low hanging fruit it is, but with Adesanya being such a tricky fighter, one with a diversity of attacks comparable to Pereira if not more so, I believe it pertinent.

As Pereira comes forward, (1) he routinely goes to the body after changing levels. Every single time, Strickland swats down at the jab to bat it away. (2) With the finish, Pereira drops down and you can see (3) that Strickland drops his rear hand. This opens up (4) the left hook and the clean knockout. Adesanya doesn’t have the knockout prowess that Alex Pereira possesses. But with all of his feinting, kicks, mixing of the hands and more, Adesanya will likely look to get Strickland to parry at everything he throws to open up other paths to the chin of Strickland. This is something we saw clearly in the Pereira rematch.

As great of a kickboxer as Pereira is, the high guard he held against Adesanya was not his best friend. Like Strickland, although not as fatal, (1) Pereira will lower his hands when Adesanya goes to the body. Adesanya does so in orthodox to start the combination with his left hand. He follows behind this with (2) a right hook around the lowered arms of Pereira. To queue up the right to go up top, (3) Adesanya throws a left hook to the body as well. This loads up the right, which after three body shots, has Pereira lowering his guard to block the body shots. (4) Adesanya comes over the top with a right hand and lands flush.

Another thing you can be sure Adesanya will do is bother Strickland as he tries to get into range. Long kicks, pokes with a jab, and a teep will be all a part of his weapons to frustrate Strickland and compromise him mentally.

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Adesanya also showed some great tricks against Pereira in their first fight. In the first round, “The Last Stylebender” wobbled Pereira at the bell and used a tricky hand-fighting technique to do so.

The setup is quite simple, honestly. Backed against the fence, a bad habit of Adesanya’s, (1) he will fire a jab out of orthodox. What you’ll notice, however, is that Adesanya (2) doesn’t pull the jab back to a defensive position. Instead he leaves it out there and pulls down the left hand, Pereira’s most dangerous weapon, that opens up a lane for (4) a right cross. He tried this against Pereira in both of their MMA fights and I expect to see it this weekend at UFC 293.

Against Pereira, the left hook threat is ever looming so Adesanya did this out of orthodox as to not leave a jab hanging out there and opening up for the left hook. It allows him to pull the hook down and throw a right at a safer time. Strickland isn’t the heaviest hitter in the middleweight division. One could also expect Adesanya to do this out of southpaw as well with the lack of firepower coming his way. All in all, this is going to be widely seen as a glorified tune up for Israel Adesanya. Dricus Du Plessis looms in the background for 2024 and all Adesanya has to do is not lose. But the pressure to put on a good performance will also be in the back of Adesanya’s mind. In the quicksand of memory, the Pereira win will be lost. Adesanya has pressures a fighter like Strickland doesn’t have: to entertain inside the cage.

Strickland: Never tell me the odds

If you speak for the wolf, you must speak against him as well. As I fawned over all of the ways Adesanya can emerge the victor at UFC 293, I have to speak about Strickland too. Bold and brash on the microphone, Strickland nonetheless leaves a lot to be desired in the cage for a lot of his fights. So, what does Strickland have that can cause trouble for Adesanya?

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In his rematch with Pereira, Adesanya won the day but took a beating to the legs. Pereira seriously compromised the movement of Adesanya and Strickland should look to that avenue first and foremost. A low kick attack is great and all, but the fact of the matter is: Strickland doesn’t kick all that much. He will want to ratchet that up a bit to start to catch up to Adesanya as the fight goes on.

Next, Strickland needs to make this a grimy, grindy match. Letting Adesanya do his thing at range, dictating where the fight is going to take place is a bad thing. Strickland needs to lean on Adesanya against the cage, punch the body, and make life hell. He has to do this from the very beginning, from the first second of the fight. Otherwise, the tactic will not bear fruit in time for Strickland to reap the benefits.

The precedent for Strickland leaning on Adesanya against the fence is there. He always backs himself onto the fence, betting on his ability to laterally move to escape danger. Against Vettori, he just let the Italian lean on him for a good portion of the fight and found strikes when he could. In the diagram above, we see Pereira backing Adesanya to the fence and the ropes. (1) In the kickboxing ring, the ropes are forgiving so Adesanya can lean out of the way, sort of a Muhammad Ali rope-a-dope tactic. (2) The cage is not so forgiving. Adesanya caught himself eating jabs from Pereira once Pereira figured this out for himself. With how Strickland comes forward, Adesanya will be there to shoot on, grind on, and maybe even take down. Is Strickland up for the task, though?

Strickland will also have to mount his own offense at UFC 293. While he may look like a novice, Strickland can move himself into position well with his footwork. I won’t say his footwork is good, too often he’s crossing feet and standing on one leg. But I will say that Strickland knows how to get into range to fight.

In his most recent fight with Abusupiyan Magomedov, Strickland showed that an opponent moving his head isn’t as much of a problem as it used to be. Magomedov was utterly gassed by this point in the fight, a shell of his former self, but Strickland knew what he wanted to do and that was a big help. (1) As Strickland jabs, notice how he (2) steps in on his second jab. Magomedov senses Strickland in the pocket and (4) throws a left and Strickland times it properly, landing a right cross over the top.

Against Jack Hermansson, Strickland showed the ability to stay in the pocket against an over-eager opponent. (1) Stepping in on the jab, (2) Strickland moves his rear leg around to get off of the center line. In the process (3) he eats a low kick but he’s created himself an angle. He will fire in (4) a jab and has the opportunity to land a cross which he chooses not to. Will Adesanya fall for these tricks? Almost certainly not. But these examples will not be how Strickland lands on Adesanya from range. Notice how he gets into the pocket with his opponents. From here, he can grab the single collar tie and hammer home uppercuts or clinch up to push to the fence.

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One thing Strickland has been improving on is the shoulder roll. While he’s not Floyd Mayweather by any stretch, Strickland does get behind his lead shoulder better than most MMA fighters. There he can parry away oncoming strikes and land some of his own.

We saw this come into play in his fight against Cannonier. (1) As Cannonier stepped into the pocket, Strickland threw a left hook and (2) rolled with the right hand coming his way from Cannonier. Getting behind his shoulder lets the punch graze off of him instead of landing to the jaw. Notice how Strickland keeps his right loaded up. (3) He fires it down the pipe and Cannonier is forced to back off. This is a “Great Value” version of the pull counter that made Mayweather the best boxer in the world. Strickland, who will be dealing with feints of his own, will likely have to improve his shoulder roll tenfold between last fight and now for it to win him the fight alone. It’s going to take a combination of all of this stuff we talked about, and then some, to win him this fight.

As the fight goes on, however, Strickland gets stronger. As long as he doesn’t eat too many shots to the body, he could possibly make this interesting. That’s a big “if” though. I’ve said it before: asking Strickland to fight differently is like asking the Pope not to be Catholic. We can’t change how he fights. He’s going to stand on one leg. He’s going to reach at things. But sometimes, he pulls stuff out that he shouldn’t. We can only sit back and watch as we wonder out loud, “How the heck does he keep winning?”