Preview: UFC 286 ‘Edwards vs. Usman 3’

Lightweights

#6 LW | Rafael Fiziev (12-1, 6-1 UFC) vs. #3 LW | Justin Gaethje (23-4, 6-4 UFC)

ODDS: Fiziev (-225), Gaethje (+190)

Fiziev has officially arrived as a lightweight contender, and now it is time for “Ataman” to try and make a case for a title shot. It has been less than four years since Fiziev’s UFC debut, which feels like a lifetime ago, especially since it was a shocking loss; a practiced muay thai striker, Fiziev was seemingly caught off-guard by the wild and reckless power of Magomed Mustafaev and got knocked out in just 86 seconds. However, Fiziev regained his momentum within two fights. After a complete win over Alex White, Fiziev put on a breakout performance in a victory over Marc Diakiese, taking a clear decision while notably showing some impressive takedown defense to answer a lot of questions about his game. From there it was off to the races, as Renato Carneiro had little answer for Fiziev’s offense ahead of a quick knockout. Fiziev then came out ahead in a tough test—and an excellent fight—against Bobby Green. That Green fight raised some concerns about Fiziev’s gas tank in deeper waters, but his last two wins have shown an impressive ability to turn things around just as he seems to be slipping out of a fight. Brad Riddell seemed to finally start figuring Fiziev out by the third round of their fight, only to eat a beautiful wheel kick for a knockout. Against Rafael dos Anjos, Fiziev stayed ahead of the former lightweight champion for three rounds before starting to tire in the fourth, only to come out and knock the Brazilian out almost immediately upon the start of the fifth round. The elite tier of the UFC’s lightweight division is a shark tank full of violent and exciting fighters, and Fiziev now gets thrown into the deep end. This fight against Gaethje should be excellent.

Even if Gaethje has brought some more thought to his performances in recent years, he is still the violence-bringer emeritus at 155 pounds. A former collegiate wrestler, “The Highlight” essentially eschewed that part of his game coming up the ranks, mostly using that ability to keep the fight standing as he acted as a relentless wrecking ball of pressure and offense. With some perfunctory defense and a seemingly inhuman level of durability, Gaethje charged down and finished opponent after opponent in “Fight of the Year” contenders before coming to the UFC. Once he arrived in the Octagon, Gaethje picked up right where he left off with a main event war against Michael Johnson, as the fight was a shade under 10 minutes of absolute madness. Each man scored near-finishes before Gaethje closed the show. For a while, it looked like that might be the peak of Gaethje’s UFC career. Subsequent fights against Eddie Alvarez and Dustin Poirier continued Gaethje’s string of entertainingly violent affairs, but both men were able to outmaneuver and outwork his straightforward approach and, more worryingly, knock him out in the later rounds. It is a testament to Gaethje’s struggles that he was somehow a betting underdog leading into a 2018 main event against James Vick, but he rebounded with three straight first-round knockouts over Vick, Edson Barboza and Donald Cerrone, re-affirming himself as an elite lightweight and setting himself up for bigger things. That turned out to be an interim title fight against Tony Ferguson on the UFC’s first post-pandemic card; and it was a complete performance from Gaethje. In retrospect, it also marked the end of Ferguson’s championship-level relevance, but it was still impressive to see Gaethje lay on an extended beating for the better part of 24 minutes. There was some hope that the newer, more thoughtfully consistent version of Gaethje could be the man to finally test Khabib Nurmagomedov, but the Dagestani brute turned that fight into easy work just before retiring. It was a disappointment, but once again, Gaethje was able to regain steam without much trouble, as he was a title contender once again after just one fight—another all-time classic war, this time a three-round affair against Michael Chandler at Madison Square Garden. Gaethje’s lone fight since, a title challenge against Charles Oliveira in May, was another frustrating showing that suggests he may never find his way to undisputed championship glory, even if it was more of a testament to the Brazilian’s own resilience than anything else. This should be another absolute dogfight as these two bang things out. Fiziev is not a wrestler, and Gaethje has attempted all of one takedown during his entire UFC career. However, Fiziev does get the mild nod in what is essentially a coinflip. It is an easier pick to make given that this fight is just three rounds, and he should be the faster fighter and able to outmaneuver Gaethje while also landing with power. It seems unlikely either man will truly be out of the fight at any point, but Fiziev should be able to balance his offense while staying elusive and eating less shots. The pick is Fiziev via narrow decision.

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Edwards vs. Usman
Fiziev vs. Gaethje
Nelson vs. Barberena
O’Neill vs. Maia
Vettori vs. Dolidze
The Prelims