Preview: UFC 286 ‘Edwards vs. Usman 3’

Middleweights

#4 MW | Marvin Vettori (18-6-1, 8-4-1 UFC) vs. #9 MW | Roman Dolidze (12-1, 6-1 UFC)

ODDS: Vettori (-275), Dolidze (+230)

Dolidze’s breakout 2022 campaign is still a bit difficult to process, but it might just be the start of something big for the Georgian. Dolidze came to the UFC as a light heavyweight prospect with a disjointed game held together by his athleticism, throwing out enough wild and high-risk stuff that eventually something would work—an approach that led him to win his first two UFC bouts. Then Dolidze dropped to middleweight in 2021, and it seemed like his career was going to go sideways, especially since he also seemingly reinvented himself as a low-output grinder. That inactivity cost him a decision loss to Trevin Giles and made his victory over Laureano Staropoli absolutely hideous. It would be over a year after the Staropoli victory before Dolidze returned to action, and since then, it has been a stunning rise through the 185-pound ranks. A lot of the criticisms of Dolidze’s game still hold, as there is not much connective tissue or consistent output, but the Georgian’s physicality and creativity has led him to some impressive moments of violence. In his last three fights, Dolidze has broken Kyle Daukaus’ face with a clinch knee, tore Phil Hawes’ knee up with a leglock and then used some innovative combination of a calf slicer and ground-and-pound to put away Jack Hermansson. It is an approach that does not seem to make much sense up until the moment that things work perfectly, and that makes this next test against Vettori an interesting proposition.

The current leading man of Italian mixed martial arts, Vettori has had an impressive rise to contender status and looks to remain relevant in what might become a wide-open title picture. Vettori came to the UFC in 2016 as an obvious athlete with a relatively formless game, and it was not until a 2019 win over Cezar Ferreira that things fully seemed to click for “The Italian Dream.” Rarely a knockout threat, Vettori has leveraged consistent aggression and some impressive durability into relentless pressure, marching down opponents and throwing out offense up until the point that they become overwhelmed. It is a simple but effective game that earned Vettori a title shot against Israel Adesanya in 2021. However, that failed encounter and his most recent loss to Robert Whittaker have shown that he can struggle at an elite level. Vettori might be persistent, but his relative predictability can leave him open to getting picked apart against an opponent willing and able to outmaneuver him for multiple rounds. That is not Dolidze, which figures to give Vettori the advantage in what still feels like a risky fight. Vettori’s perpetual pressure might just force Dolidze to bring some pace to the proceedings, and while that is not the Georgian’s typical game, it also increases the chances he will throw out enough low-percentage chances that something might actually succeed. The wrestling and grappling is particularly interesting in terms of danger for Vettori, especially since his seeming indestructibleness makes a knockout win for Dolidze unlikely. Nevertheless, the bet is that Vettori is rock-solid enough to keep surviving and force Dolidze into the type of unsuccessful showing that figures to happen at some point. The pick is Vettori via decision.

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Edwards vs. Usman
Fiziev vs. Gaethje
Nelson vs. Barberena
O’Neill vs. Maia
Vettori vs. Dolidze
The Prelims