Preview: UFC 311 Prelims

Women’s Bantamweights

#9 WBW | Karol Rosa (18-6, 7-3 UFC) vs. #13 WBW | Ailin Perez (11-2, 4-1 UFC)

ODDS: Rosa (-265), Perez (+215)

The UFC women’s bantamweight division is perennially in need of someone to break out from the pack, and this pairing seems as solid a bet as any to shake out in an interesting fashion. Rosa seems to have come out the other side of a frustrating stretch of performances, recapturing some of the excitement that surrounded her early in her UFC career. Rosa wasn’t regarded as a top prospect ahead of her UFC debut in 2019, but that outing saw her and Lara Fritzen throw down for three rounds of a fast-paced war—an approach the Brazilian would use to drown her opponents in volume for her next few fights. Rosa’s momentum came to a screeching halt with a 2022 loss to Sara McMann, after which Rosa seemed to lose her aggression, trading wins and losses in fights that didn’t leave much of an impact. Rosa finally turned things around at the end of 2023, losing a surprise “Fight of the Year” contender against Irene Aldana before looking much like her old self in a one-sided win over Pannie Kianzad in August. There is the trend that Rosa’s performances do seem to come when she’s presented with a takedown threat, which is a clear point of intrigue in this matchup against Perez.

Wrestling is essentially all that Perez brings to the table at this point, but the Argentinian has been a surprising overachiever since landing in the UFC in 2022. Perez’s game looked just as one-dimensional on the regional scene, but she didn’t appear to have the athleticism or physicality to find much success at the UFC level. Now in a major promotion, Perez has been able to train her way into better shape and outwrestled opponent after opponent, even if those performances have been more dependent on aggression than technique at times; a submission of Daria Zhelezniakova in September was a promising bit of progress. Given each woman’s recent track record, it wouldn’t be a shock if Perez found a win by embracing the grind, but the lean is that now that Rosa has turned things around, she’ll be able to pour on enough offense to take this even if she does find herself on her back. The pick is Rosa via decision.

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