Preview: UFC 311 Prelims

Bantamweights

Rinya Nakamura (9-0, 3-0 UFC) vs. Muin Gafurov (19-6, 1-2 UFC)

ODDS: Nakamura (-500), Gafurov (+380)

The UFC finally has a new wave of Japanese talent, and Nakamura might be the most talented prospect of the bunch. Nakamura was a hopeful Olympic medalist as a wrestler before the pandemic delayed the Tokyo games, which in turn prompted “Hybrid” to transition to mixed martial arts. Nakamura proved to be a quick study, running his way through the regional scene and the bantamweight bracket of the inaugural “Road to UFC” tournament to earn a contract in 2023. This marks Nakamura’s third trip to the Octagon as an official member of the UFC roster, and while he’s still obviously a prospect to watch, he could use a breakout performance to get people excited. Wins over Fernie Garcia and Carlos Vera were one-sided affairs but also wrestling-heavy decisions that were far cries from the fast-paced finishes that marked Nakamura’s rise through the ranks. Next up for Nakamura is Tajikistan’s Gafurov, who comes off his first UFC victory—one that was half a decade in the making.

Contractual issues scrapped Gafurov’s planned UFC debut in 2019, and he lost both his 2021 fight on the Contender Series and his first two bouts after getting the UFC call in 2023. However, Gafurov finally got in the win column against Kyung Ho Kang in August. It was Gafurov’s sharpest showing yet, with the all gas and no brakes mentality that has led to both success and frustration. Gafurov can do a bit of everything, possessing both knockout power and a strong wrestling game, but does all of those things at full power. That has led to him being an absolute bulldozer below a certain level of competition, but against the stouter opposition that major promotions can provide, Gafurov usually winds up tiring himself out badly after a hot start—or running into a quick submission, as he did against Said Nurmagomedov. Nakamura’s similarly aggressive and devoid of defense, so Gafurov should be able to get a lot of work done early, but unless he can score a quick finish, this looks like a fight where Nakamura can dare him to keep up and coast out a win once he proves unable. The pick is Nakamura via decision.

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